Earn More Tomorrow: Overconfident Income Expectations and Consumer Indebtedness

How do risk attitudes change after experiencing gains or losses? For the case of losses, Imas (2016) shows that subsequent risk-taking behavior depends on whether these losses have been realized or not. After a realized loss, individuals’ risk-taking decreases, whereas it increases after an unrealized (paper) loss. He refers to this asymmetry as the realization effect. In this study, we derive theoretical predictions for risk-taking after paper and realized gains, and for investment opportunities with different skewness. We experimentally test these predictions and, at the same time, replicate Imas’ original study. Independent of a prior gain or loss, we show that subsequent risk-taking is higher when outcomes remain unrealized. However, we find no evidence of a realization effect for non-positively skewed lotteries. While the first result suggests that the effect is more general, the second result reveals its boundary conditions.

Working paper version

JEL codes: D14, D84, G40.

Keywords: Debt, Consumption, Borrowing, Overconfidence, Income Expectations.